In 2025, the sodium-ion battery industry chain made steady progress toward large-scale manufacturing, cost reduction, efficiency improvement, and market expansion. Despite ongoing cost competition and technological challenges from lithium-based batteries, each segment of the value chain achieved tangible advancements, laying a solid foundation for the broader commercialization of sodium-ion battery technology in the years ahead.
Mainstream Cathode Material Path Established with Accelerating Cost Reduction
On the cathode side, the pace of large-scale production accelerated significantly, with total annual output expected to increase by 43% year-on-year compared with 2024. From a technology perspective, polyanionic cathode materials (NFPP) have established themselves as the dominant pathway, supported by a strong balance of performance and cost-reduction potential. NFPP has successfully transitioned from small- and mid-scale pilot production to ten-thousand-ton–level mass production lines.
The NFPP sector is currently in a critical cost-reduction phase characterized by “scaling up to drive pricing down”, leaving further room for price declines. With the continued rollout of new energy storage projects expected next year, demand growth prospects remain clear and robust.
In contrast, layered oxide (O3) cathode materials, constrained by relatively high costs and weakening competitiveness in the energy storage market, have experienced continued shipment contraction. Full-year deliveries are projected to decline by 36% compared with 2024, with some manufacturers already facing pressures to restructure or exit the market.
Pricing dynamics
At the pricing level, cathode material costs remain constrained by technological maturity and production scale. From January 1 to December 25, 2025, the average market price of NFPP stood at approximately USD 3,940 per metric ton. Full-year bulk transaction prices are expected to be concentrated in the USD 2,780–3,470 per metric ton range. The industry broadly anticipates a further decline toward below USD 2,780 per metric ton, which is likely to be realized after production capacity expands further in 2026.
Anode Capacity Expands Rapidly, but Structural Bottlenecks Remain
As the only commercially viable anode option for sodium-ion batteries at present, hard carbon remains the most prominent bottleneck across the entire value chain. Although annual output is expected to achieve an extraordinary year-on-year increase of over 90%, significant challenges persist in cost control, performance compatibility, and the availability of high-quality production capacity.
The key constraints are threefold. First, raw material costs remain elevated, particularly as international coconut shell charcoal prices continue to operate at high levels. Second, the release of effective capacity is insufficient, with high-quality hard carbon supply remaining tight and unable to keep pace with the rapid growth of cathode materials. Third, the technology pathway still requires optimization: the coconut shell–based route faces sustainability pressures related to raw material supply, while alternative routes such as coal-based hard carbon have yet to fully meet performance requirements.
To address these bottlenecks, companies across the value chain have accelerated efforts throughout the year to explore diversified feedstock pathways, including bamboo, biomass, and coal-based sources. These initiatives aim to drive cost reductions in hard carbon materials and build a technological foundation for future capacity expansion.
Pricing characteristics
Hard carbon pricing is highly dependent on raw material costs and downstream application requirements. Hard carbon used in electric two-wheelers, which have relatively lower cycle-life requirements, is priced at the lower end of the market. In contrast, applications such as energy storage systems, which demand long cycle life, and start–stop power systems, which require high-rate performance, command higher prices due to more stringent material quality requirements.
Clear Downward Cost Trajectory for Electrolytes
The sodium-ion battery electrolyte segment has benefited significantly from the mature foundation of the lithium battery industry. In 2025, output is expected to increase by 42% year-on-year, with capacity primarily sourced from the conversion of existing lithium-ion electrolyte production lines or the utilization of idle capacity. Leveraging deep expertise in electrolyte chemistry and strong economies of scale, leading lithium-ion electrolyte manufacturers have entered the sodium-ion market relatively smoothly and now dominate supply.
Across the industry, a cautious “produce-to-order” approach is widely adopted. From a competitive standpoint, leading lithium-ion electrolyte suppliers, supported by advantages in technology, capacity, and customer relationships, have secured the majority of core orders, resulting in a relatively high level of market concentration. Some companies have already begun expanding into overseas markets.
As mass production advances, electrolyte prices continue to trend downward. At present, the price of electrolytes compatible with NFPP can be kept below USD 4,170 per metric ton. Although this remains above the long-term target of USD 2,780 per metric ton, continued NFPP volume ramp-up is expected to drive demand growth, while the large-scale production of key materials—such as electrolytes and additives—will further reduce costs, gradually strengthening profitability across this segment.
Cell Manufacturing and End-Use Applications Drive Differentiated Development
The cell manufacturing segment served as the core growth engine of the sodium-ion battery industry in 2025, driven primarily by the continuous expansion and deeper penetration of downstream application scenarios.
From a market application perspective, mass production of start–stop power batteries progressed smoothly. In the electric two-wheeler segment, sodium-ion batteries achieved a steadily rising penetration rate and have become the largest shipment contributor to date.
In contrast, commercialization in the energy storage sector fell short of expectations at the beginning of the year due to intense price competition from lithium battery cells. Nevertheless, domestic manufacturers have actively accumulated project pipelines. Combined with provincial and municipal new energy storage project planning for next year, as well as growing interest in sodium-ion batteries’ low-temperature performance in regions such as Northern Europe and North America, the release of energy storage demand is expected to await a more favorable market window.
In response to these challenges, competition among cell manufacturers has centered on optimizing the performance–cost balance. Both established lithium-ion battery leaders and sodium-ion startups are accelerating capacity deployment and technological iteration. Meanwhile, mainstream technology pathways are shifting from layered oxide systems toward polyanionic systems, which offer greater long-term cost-reduction potential.
Price competitiveness remains the key challenge to large-scale adoption. Taking 280Ah prismatic energy storage cells as an example, sodium-ion cell prices remain significantly higher than those of lithium-based counterparts. This gap is primarily attributable to higher cathode and anode material costs, as well as increased consumption of auxiliary materials resulting from lower energy density. Although cost reduction efforts continued across the entire value chain throughout 2025, sodium-ion batteries still lack an absolute price advantage over lithium-based solutions.
At the current stage, sodium-ion batteries should therefore focus on niche markets with lower price sensitivity, where their differentiated advantages—such as low-temperature performance and safety—can be fully leveraged to establish early market credibility and a foundation for scaled deployment.
Conclusion
Looking back at 2025, the sodium-ion battery industry advanced through a period of challenges and adjustment. The mainstream cathode pathway was clearly established and entered a phase of mass production–driven cost reduction. Hard carbon anodes, despite rapid growth, remained a critical bottleneck, requiring breakthroughs in both technology and raw material sourcing.
The electrolyte segment developed steadily by leveraging the mature lithium-ion foundation, with the battery electrolyte supply chain maintaining stability. Meanwhile, cell manufacturing and end-use markets achieved initial volume growth through differentiated applications, although cost competitiveness remains the key constraint preventing broader entry into mainstream markets such as large-scale energy storage.
Looking ahead to 2026, economies of scale across the value chain are expected to become more pronounced, supporting continued cost reductions in all segments. The core industry focus is likely to shift from technology validation and capacity build-up toward cost competition and market validation. Against the backdrop of accelerating energy storage project deployment, deeper penetration in the two-wheeler market, and expanding overseas opportunities, the industry will seek genuine pathways to large-scale commercialization.
